Gold. C. W. Emmanuel, PhD; CPsychol.
Abstract
This brief interrogates the security implications of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to run on a Muslim-Muslim ticket in the 2023 general elections. It explores the correlation between religious political symbolism and insurgency dynamics in Nigeria, drawing on empirical data from 2023 to 2025. The analysis situates the discourse within frameworks of identity politics, securitisation theory, and conflict spiral models. It further provides projections on terrorism trends and policy recommendations for mitigating the escalating crisis.
Introduction
Nigeria’s political architecture has historically relied on informal norms of religious balancing to maintain fragile national cohesion. The Muslim-Muslim ticket adopted by Tinubu disrupted this equilibrium, triggering perceptions of exclusion among Christian communities and reinforcing sectarian narratives. While the administration justified its choice on grounds of competence, the symbolic deficit has had profound security repercussions. This brief examines the trajectory of insurgency and terrorism since Tinubu assumed office, contextualising the rise in violence within broader socio-political dynamics.
Religious Politics and Perceptions of Marginalisation
The Muslim-Muslim ticket was perceived as a repudiation of Nigeria’s pluralistic ethos. Christian organisations, notably the Christian Association of Nigeria, expressed apprehension over systemic exclusion. This perception has been weaponised by extremist groups to frame governance as sectarian, thereby legitimising violence in the eyes of vulnerable recruits. The erosion of trust in state neutrality has deepened ethno-religious fault lines, particularly in the Middle Belt and southern regions.
Empirical Trends in Insurgency and Terrorism (2023–2025)
The Tinubu administration inherited a complex security landscape characterised by jihadist insurgency, banditry, and separatist violence. Despite intensified military campaigns, insurgent groups have demonstrated adaptive resilience.
Key Statistics
- Fatalities from terrorism: Nigeria recorded 533 deaths in 2023 and 565 deaths in 2024, marking a 34% increase from 2022 and consolidating its position as the 6th most terror-impacted country globally with a Global Terrorism Index score of 7.66.
- Insurgent surrenders and neutralisations: Over 13,543 terrorists killed, while 124,408 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters and families surrendered between May 2023 and May 2025.
- Banditry and kidnappings: Between May 2023 and April 2024, 2,235,954 Nigerians abducted, with ransom payments totalling ₦2.2 trillion. North-West accounted for 1.42 million abductions, followed by North-Central with 317,837 cases.
- Violent deaths: CESPS reported 614,937 violent deaths nationwide, with North-West and North-East contributing 206,030 and 188,992 deaths respectively.
- Boko Haram and ISWAP dominance: Responsible for 66% of violent deaths in 2024, with 3,627 fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence in the Lake Chad Basin. Trend Analysis
The persistence of violence despite tactical gains suggests a strategic evolution of insurgent groups. Boko Haram has been degraded, yet ISWAP has expanded its geographic footprint, while banditry has eclipsed jihadist violence in casualty figures in some regions. The proliferation of mass kidnappings, including the abduction of 303 students and 12 teachers in Niger State in November 2025, underscores the operational sophistication of criminal networks. Correlation Between Religious Symbolism and Security Dynamics
The Muslim-Muslim ticket’s symbolic resonance has amplified extremist propaganda. Islamist factions exploit narratives of exclusion to recruit disaffected youths, while Christian-majority states have witnessed retaliatory violence. The convergence of identity politics and structural insecurity has produced a conflict spiral, wherein political decisions catalyse cycles of violence that transcend their original intent. Accuracy and Anomalies - Kidnapping Figures: Verified as cited from NBS CESPS 2024, but widely disputed by independent analysts (SBM Intelligence, ACLED). Likely inflated due to survey extrapolation bias and definition divergence (including short-term detentions as kidnappings).
- Insurgency Data: NSA figures on surrenders and neutralisations are credible and consistent with observed trends.
- Reality Gap: Independent monitors recorded 4,000–7,000 actual abductions, not 2.2 million. Projections (2026–2030)
- Escalation of Sectarian Violence: If perceptions of exclusion persist, ethno-religious militancy will intensify, particularly in Middle Belt and North-Central zones.
- Expansion of Terror Networks: ISWAP and Sahelian affiliates will leverage porous borders and digital platforms, increasing Nigeria’s vulnerability to transnational jihadism.
- Governance Legitimacy Crisis: Continued insecurity may erode confidence in democratic institutions, precipitating constitutional agitations and centrifugal tendencies among federating units. Projected fatalities from terrorism could exceed 800 annually by 2030, while kidnapping incidents may rise by 15–20%, driven by economic desperation and weak state capacity. Nigeria’s Global Terrorism Index score is likely to remain above 7.5, sustaining its position among the top ten most terror-impacted nations unless structural reforms are implemented. Policy Recommendations
- Institutionalise religious and ethnic balancing in political appointments to restore confidence in federal impartiality.
- Strengthen community-based intelligence networks and deploy advanced surveillance technologies to counter adaptive insurgent strategies.
- Prioritise socio-economic interventions in conflict-prone zones to undercut recruitment pipelines.
- Implement strategic communication frameworks to neutralise extremist narratives and reaffirm Nigeria’s pluralistic ethos.
- Accelerate constitutional reforms for state policing, decentralising security architecture to enhance responsiveness.
- Audit NBS methodology and harmonise definitions to prevent policy misalignment.
- Commission independent security analysts for future crime perception surveys.
- Develop a Unified Security Metrics Framework to eliminate extrapolation errors and definitional inconsistencies. Conclusion
Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket represents a structural inflection point in Nigeria’s governance paradigm. While the administration argues tactical successes, the symbolic deficit of inclusivity continues to reverberate across the national psyche, fuelling insecurity and undermining cohesion. The insurgency blow delivered under this administration is not merely a security challenge but a profound political crisis that demands visionary leadership and uncompromising commitment to national unity.
