by Collins Nweke
In recent conversations, a deeply pessimistic narrative has been making the rounds: “Wars, or is it world wars, tend to start small,” a friend lamented. “First, it was Ukraine, then Sudan, oh! I forgot Cameroon is at war with itself, then came Gaza and now we are in Israel and Iran. If we combine the population of these nations and those backing them, could we not conclude that World War III is looming?”
It’s a tempting theory. This idea that the world is sliding inevitably toward a third global war. The imagery is dramatic, the fear visceral. But it is not accurate. And it is certainly not helpful. Yes, the world is going through a turbulent season. But no, these are not the rumblings of a third world war. Rather than scaremongering, we must turn to reason, perspective, and a sober reading of the facts.
We should not confuse local conflicts with global conflagration. What we are witnessing across the globe today, whether in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, or Cameroon, are regional and context-specific conflicts, not the makings of a coordinated, worldwide military confrontation. Unlike the early 20th century, when global alliances triggered continent-wide mobilizations, today’s conflicts are largely unlinked in cause, geography, and participants.
Ukraine is about NATO-Russia tensions. Gaza is rooted in the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Sudan’s crisis is an internal power struggle. And Cameroon? That is a nationfacing long-standing grievances in its Anglophone regions. These are tragic. Yes, but not interconnected in a way that could set off a world war.
The World Is More Diplomatic Than Ever
Diplomacy has not disappeared. To the contrary, it has diversified. Nations and multilateral institutions are actively working, often behind the scenes, to de-escalate these crises. Whether it’s Turkey brokering grain deals in Ukraine, Egypt mediating ceasefires in Gaza, or the African Union engaging with Sudanese factions, diplomatic tracks are alive and well.Unlike in 1914, when diplomacy collapsed under the weight of imperial arrogance, today’s world has layers of dialogue and mediation channels. They may be formal and informal, but they work in tandem.
Globalization Has Changed the Stakes
In today’s hyper-connected world, a world war would be an economic suicide pact. No major power can afford it. Not the United States, not China, not Europe. Trade interdependence has created a strong disincentive for outright global war. Even amid tensions, the world’s leading economies continue to trade, invest, and collaborate on global challenges like climate change and pandemics. Unlike the nationalism and protectionism that fueled previous world wars, today’s powers are bound, however reluctantly, by mutual economic interest.
Modern Warfare Is Strategic, Not Expansive
Even the most serious escalations today, such as between Iran and Israel, are calibrated rather than reckless. Military doctrines have shifted from conquest to deterrence. The existence of nuclear weapons has paradoxically acted as a stabilizer. The logic of mutual assured destruction means that major powers understand the cost of letting conflict spiral out of control. Moreover, while it is easy to draw parallels to the past, history is not a script we are doomed to repeat. The conditions that led to the two World Wars, imperial rivalries, collapse of global governance, and the absence of civil society, are not mirrored in today’s world. In fact, global institutions are stronger, more inclusive, and more vigilant than ever.
Peacebuilding is not a whisper but a chorus
Around the world, citizens and civil society organizations are actively resisting war narratives. Youth movements are pushing for climate justice, democracy, and human rights. Technological tools give ordinary people a voice and a platform. Peace is not passive; it is being actively built every day. It is not unimportant to remind ourselves in times like today
that the majority of the world is not in conflict. Much of Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Pacific remain stable. International cooperation continues, from vaccine sharing to infrastructure funding to peacekeeping missions.
In times like this, pessimism can feel like realism. But fatalism is lazy. It abdicates responsibility. It stops us from doing the work needed to build peace, strengthen institutions, and hold leaders accountable. No, World War III is not inevitable. But peace won’t happen on autopilot either. We need informed engagement, committed diplomacy, and a refusal to buy into doomsday thinking. Let us reject fear and reaffirm our faith in humanity’s capacity to learn from history, not repeat it.
The author, Collins Nweke, was Chairperson Emeritus of Nigerians in Diaspora Organisation (NIDO) Europe from 2011 to 2013. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria. A former Green Councillor at Ostend City Council, Belgium, Collins is also a Distinguished Fellow of the International Association of Research Scholars & Administrators. He serves on its Governing Council.
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